Pretty convenient you picked 09 to try and illustrate how good of a stock SAM has been. Did you calculate SAM’s return based on its absolute bottom after the GFC? Been a terrible investment for several years and I don’t see that changing based upon the secular decline in beer sales.
From memory, when I ran the numbers on longer periods it didn’t make the results meaningfully different. Certainly no gaming of time periods intended.
Haven’t done a deep dive but will say that from the looks of it the stock is down a lot from its 1000+ highs in 2021….when it looks like it was trading at maybe 45x earnings or higher. Not much I can say to someone who bought/held at those levels. What did they think was going to happen and why did they think that multiple would hold?
So you’re saying part of the reason its done well is because it got way over valued. There’s a long list of stocks that were great buys if you timed them well coming out of the GFC.
I actually double checked why I picked 2009 and it was because BUD went public in that year.
SAMs overvaluation in 2021 doesn’t really change my numbers at all since we looked at returns into close to present day. My point was that if it’s been a “bad investment” for the last few years, buying a relatively mature co at over 45x earnings may have had something to do with it as multiples compressed
I really enjoy your letters and your rational long term cash flows based approach to evaluating this sector.
Pretty convenient you picked 09 to try and illustrate how good of a stock SAM has been. Did you calculate SAM’s return based on its absolute bottom after the GFC? Been a terrible investment for several years and I don’t see that changing based upon the secular decline in beer sales.
From memory, when I ran the numbers on longer periods it didn’t make the results meaningfully different. Certainly no gaming of time periods intended.
Haven’t done a deep dive but will say that from the looks of it the stock is down a lot from its 1000+ highs in 2021….when it looks like it was trading at maybe 45x earnings or higher. Not much I can say to someone who bought/held at those levels. What did they think was going to happen and why did they think that multiple would hold?
So you’re saying part of the reason its done well is because it got way over valued. There’s a long list of stocks that were great buys if you timed them well coming out of the GFC.
I actually double checked why I picked 2009 and it was because BUD went public in that year.
SAMs overvaluation in 2021 doesn’t really change my numbers at all since we looked at returns into close to present day. My point was that if it’s been a “bad investment” for the last few years, buying a relatively mature co at over 45x earnings may have had something to do with it as multiples compressed
What a great read. Absolutely on point.
Very well written and spot on. Looking forward to future articles.